Winning your March Madness pool is a crapshoot. There is no denying that. I’m not going to run through each game and try to predict who will win.
We’d be better off using an octopus for that.
Rather than predict each game, here are some key indicators (ranked in order of importance) to check for when you can’t decide which team to pick.
Free Throw %
Teams who can’t shoot free throws will choke in March Madness.
The best FT shooting team in the tournament is #11 Mississippi at 77.4%, while the #1 overall seed Kentucky is at 72.2%.
Meanwhile #3 Baylor is at 66%. That is the type of team I would expect to get upset.
Ask John Calipari how he feels about free throws…
Turn Over %
No lead is safe if a team can’t take care of the ball. When games are close in the 2nd half, the building gets loud, the pressure builds, the pace of the game picks up, and so do turnovers.
#1 Wisconsin has the lowest turnover percentage at 12.4% with #10 Davidson (14.3%) and #3 Notre Dame (14.4%) rounding out the top three.
#3 Baylor (19.6%), #6 SMU (19.7%), and #4 Georgetown (19.2%) are all teams I’d be wary of.
Adam Morrison knows a thing or two about what happens when you turn the ball over in the tournament…
Offensive Rebound %
The #1 thing that can deflate a team, both physically and mentally are offensive rebounds by the opposing team. This rings true especially in college basketball when dealing with a 35 second shot clock.
A team can have a great defensive possession only to watch the offense grab a board, reset, and then hit a three. There goes 50 seconds of hard work for nothing.
#3 Baylor leads teams with 41.8% offensive rebound rate, yet do to previously mentioned flaws, I’m not sold. #5 West Virginia (40.9%), #1 Kentucky (40.4%), and #4 North Carolina (39.9%) follow Baylor as top offensive rebounding teams.
#3 Notre Dame (28.1%) , #3 Iowa St. (28.5%), and #4 Maryland (29.2%) are three notable teams near the bottom of the pack.
What happens when teams get offensive rebounds? Good things. Rip Hamilton made Washington pay in 1998…
Obviously there are countless variables that can impact any one game, but these specific areas are things I’d look to.
Can a team shoot free throws? Can they take care of the basketball? Can they rebound?
My guess is when the madness settles, the team standing last will be able to check off each one of these boxes.
