Beware Padres Fans

For the first time since PetCo Park’s opening there is a buzz around the San Diego Padres. The club has upgraded their entire roster since A.J. Preller has taken over as general manager. It is possible that the 2015 opening day starting lineup will feature only one or two players from 2014’s opening day team. San Diego’s payroll at the end of the 2014 season was $65.1M and it is now slightly above $100M. With all the changes the expectations are high for the Friars in 2015 but Padres fans should pacify their excitement because this is not the first time a team has tried to create a championship contender by bumping up their payroll.

(L to R) Reyes, Bell, Buehrle.

In the last few seasons two teams have tried go from small market push-overs to big spenders. In 2012 the Florida Marlins moved into a new ball park, got a new logo, new uniform set, changed their name to the Miami Marlins and gave their roster a facelift by increasing the payroll from $57.7M to $89.2M. In the off-season Miami added all-stars Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell. They also picked up veteran pitcher Carlos Zambrano and traded for power hitter Carlos Lee during the season.

Despite Miami’s best effort in the offseason the 2012 Marlins were a complete disaster. Miami lost 3 more games than they did the previous season. Reyes performed well but his presence moved all-star Hanley Ramirez from short to third base causing tension and eventually Ramirez’s departure. Buhrle posted his worst season since 2006, Heath Bell’s ERA doubled from the year before and Zambrano and Lee looked like shadows of their former selves and retired at the end of the year. None of additions were on the roster the following season leaving the 2013 Marlins with a payroll of $24.3M.

(L to R) Buehrle, Reyes, Johnson

Also in 2013 the Blue Jays decided to increase their payroll from $74.7M to $123.5M. They traded for most of the players Miami gave up on including Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and 2010 Cy Young winner Josh Johnson. They also grabbed 2012 Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey, and 2012 All-Star* Melkey Cabrera.

Toronto’s record only improved by one win and the Jays finished dead last in the AL East. Reyes and Carbrera only played half the season and all three pitchers were busts.

Matt Kemp

Now in 2015 the Padres will try to do what the Marlins and Blue Jays could not do, improve their record by overhauling their roster. Only time will tell if all the changes create a championship contender but fans should subdue their excitement until further notice.

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The range of how each new Padre could perform is wide. Here is the best and worst case scenario for each player:

Matt Kemp:

Best Case: 28 HR, 100 RBI, Slash Line .300/.375/.540

Worst Case 1A: Injured

Worst Case 1B: 14 HR, 70 RBI, .260/.310/.440

Justin Upton:

Best Case: 30 HR, 90 RBI, .280/.355/.490

Worst Cast: 15 HR, 60 RBI, .255/.330/.425

Wil Myers:

Best Case: 20 HR, 85 RBI, .275/.330/.430

Worst Case 1A: Injured