NFL Week 4: Tommy’s Picks

I had a strong Week 3 going 10-6. That moves the season total to 17-13-1. My survivor pick, the Patriots, gave me a little scare against an inferior Raiders team but they hung on for a 17-9 victory. I’ve now burned New England, Detroit, and Green Bay.

This week’s games are much tougher to pick than last week…

Giants +3.5 over @ Redskins

The Giants, who I had already deemed the worst in the NFC East after two weeks, showed some life offensively last week. I don’t think Cousins will be able to duplicate his Week 3 success so I like the Giants here.

Packers +1.5 over @ Bears

After getting stunned by the Lions defense last week the Packers worry me, especially going up against another division opponent. However, I think last week was just a hick up and A-Rod and the boys will be back to normal this week in what will be a high scoring affair.

@ Texans -3 over Bills

Ryan Fitzpatrick laid an egg against the Giants last week in an embarrassing 30-17 loss but he’ll bounce back at home. The Bills are still having a tough time finding the endzone. They are tied for a league worst 4 offensive TDs in the first 3 weeks.

Titans +7.5 over @ Colts

The Colts had a curiously low line last week only being favored by 7 in Jacksonville. Even though the Colts covered easily I think the odds makers are trying to tell us something.

Panthers +3 over @ Ravens

I expect Cam Newton and the Panthers to wake up this week after being spanked last week at home in prime time against the Steelers.

Lions -1.5 over @Jets

This game frightens me a little. I don’t think the Jets are as bad as people say they are and I don’t think the Lions are anything for NFL teams to fear. With that being said I don’t think Geno Smith will handle the scrutiny he’s going to face all this week after last Monday night’s performance so I expect him to play one of his worst games.

@Steelers -7.5 over Buccaneers

Until the Bucs start Mike Glennon I will continue to pick against them.

@Raiders +4 over Dolphins

Ryan Tannehill may find himself out of a starting job in the not so distant future. The Raiders looked good defensively in New England so look for Tannehill to take another step closer to the clipboard.

Jaguars +13 @ Chargers

The Blake Bortles era begins. This is a classic trap game for the Chargers playing against a rookie QB, coming back from an east coast road trip and playing this game in a less that full Qualcomm Stadium.

Falcons -2.5 @ Vikings

The sketchy line theory tells me to stay away from the Falcons in this one but Teddy Bridgewater doesn’t. Falcons should take this one easy.

Eagles +5.5 @ 49ers

The Eagles have come back to win all three of their games after being down by at least 10 in each one. If they get out to a fast start they should not only cover but win this game.

Saints -3 @ Cowboys

Taking the home dogs in a primetime game is always a good idea but not in this case. The Cowboys were lucky to make it out of St. Louis alive and they found a way to give up 31 points to a team with no quarterback or offensive weapons (granted 7 of them came on a Romo pick 6.) Drew Brees will have a field day.

@ Chiefs +3.5 over Patriots

While I correctly didn’t pick the home dog on Monday night last week, this week things will change. Tom Brady and the Pats have looked very pedestrian in their first three and while the Chiefs have looked more like the team that went 2-5 the after their ’13 bye week than the team that went 9-0 before it they’ll still have enough at home to cover.

Survivor Pick: Chargers

The idea of picking my favorite team and jinxing them scares me, but it’s their safest game this season.

Survivor Pick: Chargers